CME ScoreBoard Header

CME Scoreboard

CME Scoreboard: Prediction Detail

Prediction for CME (2021-03-20T00:48:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2021-03-20T00:48Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/16634/-1
CME Note: This arrival was attributed earlier to the signature seen at L1 around 2021-03-24T04:57Z. After a discussion with two ICME experts, it was decided that the second and stronger structure detected at L1 around 2021-03-24T19:18Z was the actual CME arrival. The first signature did not decrease in temperature while the second structure display clear signatures of a flux rope in the magnetic field, temperature and velocity.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2021-03-24T19:18Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
----

Predicted Arrival Time: 2021-03-23T02:49Z (-12.0h, +12.0h)
Prediction Method: EAM (Effective Acceleration Model)
Prediction Method Note:

Utilizing the upgraded version EAM_v3 [Paouris et al. 2021]

% Compiled module: EAM_V3.
******************************************************************************
Most pr. speed = 470.0 km/s 
Upgraded EAMv3 output:
u_r =      300.810
Acceleration:       1.89483
Duration in seconds:        266480.06
Duration in days:        3.0842599
**************************************************************************************
Acceleration of the CME:   1.89 m/s^2
Velocity of the CME at 1 AU:  805.7 km/s
Expected date and time for the arrival of the CME: 23/03/2021 Time: 02:49 UT

Lead Time: 84.13 hour(s)
Difference: 40.48 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Evangelos Paouris (JHUAPL) on 2021-03-21T07:10Z

CME Scoreboard Footer

CCMC Rules of the Road: CCMC requests that users notify the CCMC, CME model/technique developers and submitting forecasters/researchers before performing event and validation studies with data from the CME Arrival Time Scoreboard. It is recommended that such studies be performed with the knowledge and collaboration of developers and submitting forecasters/researchers.

If you are looking for the official U.S. Government forecast for space weather, please go to NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center (https://swpc.noaa.gov). This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.

Curator: Chiu Wiegand | NASA Official: Dr. Masha Kuznetsova | Privacy and Security Notices | Accessibility | CCMC Data Policy